Trump: 'Bad Things" if Iran Won't Deal 02/20 06:17

   Iran held annual military drills with Russia on Thursday as a second 
American aircraft carrier drew closer to the Middle East, with both the United 
States and Iran signaling they are prepared for war if talks on Tehran's 
nuclear program fizzle out.

   DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- Iran held annual military drills with 
Russia on Thursday as a second American aircraft carrier drew closer to the 
Middle East, with both the United States and Iran signaling they are prepared 
for war if talks on Tehran's nuclear program fizzle out.

   President Donald Trump said Thursday he believes 10 to 15 days is "enough 
time" for Iran to reach a deal. But the talks have been deadlocked for years, 
and Iran has refused to discuss wider U.S. and Israeli demands that it scale 
back its missile program and sever ties to armed groups. Indirect talks held in 
recent weeks made little visible progress, and one or both sides could be 
buying time for final war preparations.

   Iran's theocracy is more vulnerable than ever following 12 days of Israeli 
and U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites and military last year, as well as mass 
protests in January that were violently suppressed.

   In a letter to the U.N. Security Council on Thursday, Amir Saeid Iravani, 
the Iranian ambassador to the U.N., said that while Iran does not seek "tension 
or war and will not initiate a war," any U.S. aggression will be responded to 
"decisively and proportionately."

   "In such circumstances, all bases, facilities, and assets of the hostile 
force in the region would constitute legitimate targets in the context of 
Iran's defensive response," Iravani said.

   Earlier this week, Iran conducted a drill that involved live-fire in the 
Strait of Hormuz, the narrow opening of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth 
of the world's traded oil passes.

   Tensions are also rising inside Iran, as mourners hold ceremonies honoring 
slain protesters 40 days after their killing by security forces. Some 
gatherings have seen anti-government chants despite threats from authorities.

   Trump again threatens Iran

   The movements of additional American warships and airplanes, with the USS 
Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier near the mouth of the Mediterranean Sea, don't 
guarantee a U.S. strike on Iran -- but they bolster Trump's ability to carry 
out one should he choose to do so.

   He has so far held off on striking Iran after setting red lines over the 
killing of peaceful protesters and mass executions, while reengaging in nuclear 
talks that were disrupted by the war in June.

   Iran has agreed to draw up a written proposal to address U.S. concerns 
raised during this week's indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, according to a 
senior U.S. official who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on 
the condition of anonymity.

   The official said top national security officials gathered Wednesday to 
discuss Iran, and were briefed that the "full forces" needed to carry out 
potential military action are expected to be in place by mid-March. The 
official did not provide a timeline for when Iran is expected to deliver its 
written response.

   "It's proven to be, over the years, not easy to make a meaningful deal with 
Iran, and we have to make a meaningful deal. Otherwise, bad things happen," 
Trump said Thursday.

   With the U.S. military presence in the region mounting, one senior regional 
government official said he has stressed to Iranian officials in private 
conversations that Trump has proven that his rhetoric should be taken at face 
value and that he's serious about his threat to carry out a strike if Iran 
doesn't offer adequate concessions.

   The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss delicate 
diplomatic conversations, said he has advised the Iranians to look to how Trump 
has dealt with other international issues and draw lessons on how it should 
move forward.

   The official added that he's made to case to the Trump administration it 
could draw concessions from Iran in the near-term if it focuses on nuclear 
issues and leaves the push on Tehran to scale back its ballistic missile 
program and support for proxy group for later.

   The official also said that Trump ordering a limited strike aimed at 
pressuring Iran could backfire and lead to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei 
withdrawing Iran from the talks.

   Growing international concern

   Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged his nation's citizens to immediately 
leave Iran as "within a few, a dozen, or even a few dozen hours, the 
possibility of evacuation will be out of the question." He did not elaborate, 
and the Polish Embassy in Tehran did not appear to be drawing down its staff.

   The German military said that it had moved "a mid-two digit number of 
non-mission critical personnel" out of a base in northern Iraq because of the 
current situation in the region and in line with its partners' actions. It said 
that some troops remain to help keep the multinational camp running in Irbil, 
where they train Iraqi forces.

   "This week, another 50 U.S. combat aircraft -- F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s -- 
were ordered to the region, supplementing the hundreds deployed to bases in the 
Arab Gulf states," the New York-based Soufan Center think tank wrote. "The 
deployments reinforce Trump's threat -- restated on a nearly daily basis -- to 
proceed with a major air and missile campaign on the regime if talks fail."

   Iran holds drill with Russia

   Iranian forces and Russian sailors conducted the annual drills in the Gulf 
of Oman and the Indian Ocean aimed at "upgrading operational coordination as 
well as exchange of military experiences," Iran's state-run IRNA news agency 
reported.

   Footage released by Iran showed members of the paramilitary Revolutionary 
Guard's naval special forces board a vessel in the exercise. Those forces are 
believed to have been used in the past to seize vessels in key international 
waterways.

   Iran also issued a rocket-fire warning to pilots in the region, suggesting 
it planned to launch anti-ship missiles in the exercise.

   Meanwhile, tracking data showed the Ford off the coast of Morocco in the 
Atlantic Ocean midday Wednesday, meaning the carrier could transit through 
Gibraltar and potentially station in the eastern Mediterranean with its 
supporting guided-missile destroyers.

   It would likely take more than a week for the Ford to be off the coast of 
Iran.

   Netanyahu warns Iran

   Israel is making its own preparations for possible Iranian missile strikes 
in response to any U.S. action.

   "We are prepared for any scenario," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin 
Netanyahu said Thursday, adding that if Iran attacks Israel, "they will 
experience a response they cannot even imagine."

   Netanyahu, who met with Trump last week, has long pushed for tougher U.S. 
action against Iran and says any deal should not only end its nuclear program 
but curb its missile arsenal and force it to cut ties with militant groups like 
Hamas and Hezbollah.

   Iran has said the current talks should only focus on its nuclear program, 
and that it hasn't been enriching uranium since the U.S. and Israeli strikes 
last summer. Trump said at the time that the strikes had "obliterated" Iran's 
nuclear sites, but the exact damage is unknown as Tehran has barred 
international inspectors.

   Iran has always insisted its nuclear program is peaceful. The U.S. and 
others suspect it is aimed at eventually developing weapons. Israel is widely 
believed to have nuclear weapons but has neither confirmed nor denied that.